Monday, November 28, 2005

The truth behind resort condo's

As a professional in the resort real estate industry, one of the areas of discussion that we have to deal with time and time again is the false expectation created by many developers' sales and marketing teams that an investment unit is going to cash flow positively.

Typically in most resort environements, real estate is selling upwards of $250 per square foot. Some exceptions exist, but lets use this example for illustration. The challenge for the buyer is walking into a sales presentation with a pre-conceived notion that they are going to buy a unit and never have to put any cash into it because after all the folks at the presentation told me I could make a 20% return on my money!

First of all, lets be honest, if a developer could make a 20% return on his money with ongoing cash flow, why is he selling it to you? Secondly, who showed you what figures? In some of the most mature hotel markets in the world, occupancies are running around 60%, often a far cry from the 90% occupancy rate some slick sales person told you in that emerging resort market place with one hotel!

The truth is that on average, condo rental programs rarely deliver much more than twelve to fifteen weeks of rental anually because of the conflict presented by owner's personal use and booking terms surrounding that use. Then we need to look at the average daily rate in the area since with yield management programs in the hotel industry, your very luxurious and large condo may only rent for the same as a one bedroom unit in the local hotel because occupancy rates aren't there!

So in what way is buying a resort condo a good investment?

There are several very good and profitable reasons to buy a resort condo/home:

1. The resort market places you are contemplating buying in are some of the most pressured and heated real estate markets you can find, and will likely remain that way for the next ten to fifteen years.

2. The opportunity to benefit from first phase pricing allows you as a buyer to develop a "lift" from the pre-programmed price increases that a developer will often work into their programs.

3. The rental revenue can contribute greatly to your costs of ownership and financing, which means you can build your asset base faster with less effort.

4.
Buying overseas can allow you to make timely exchange rate profits too, albeit very carefully.

5. By leveraging your purchase you could stand to make very serious short term ROIs - for instance, if a buyer purchased a $400,000 unit at the early phase pricing and put down $100,000 as a deposit, financing the rest, the developer increase in price list and the market dynamics could perhaps allow that investor to sell the unit in twelve months time for $500,000, this would be $100,000 in and $200,000 out with some carrying costs in the intervening time frame that would have largely been covered by the rental program.

Now if your stock broker offered us that kind of a stock play in the markets, you would be all over it. The challenge with real estate is that the due diligence required is significant (in fact in recent years the same is true of stock market investments) and requires a trusted relationship with some form of brokerage that you allow to do that homework for you.

The bottom line is that while the opportunity to profit is great, the place you need to look for profit is often not where that slick sales person may be taking you!

Friday, November 25, 2005

Why will the Okanagan keep on truckin'

Excerpt from Castanet news article
"Canada’s resale housing market remains on track for its best year on record, according to a revised forecast prepared by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

CREA predicts 484,025 properties will be sold through the Multiple Listing Service in 2005 – up 5.0 per cent from a record 461,112 sales in 2004 and its fifth consecutive annual record.

Exceptionally strong sales in the second and third quarters of 2005 will also push MLS home sales to new annual records in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick. Seasonally adjusted national MLS homes sales hit 126,890 units in the third quarter of 2005 – their highest quarterly level on record and up 3.3 per cent from the 122,860 units sold in the second quarter of 2005.

“Sales momentum picked up during the third quarter, setting a new monthly record for sales activity in August. Transactions are still running exceptionally high, but small interest rate increases are beginning to bring sales activity back to earth in a number of major markets,” said CREA’s Chief Economist Gregory Klump.

“Sales activity is forecast to gradually trend lower as interest rates creep higher next year. Even though transactions through the MLS® are forecast to ease, they are expected to reach their third-highest annual level on record in 2006,” predicted Klump.

“The housing market will become more balanced as additional expected housing price and interest rate increases cause sales activity to edge lower next year. Price gains will be more modest in 2006 as the market becomes more balanced,” he added.

The CREA forecast estimates the annual MLS average home price in Canada will be $256,200 in 2005, up 13.2 per cent from 2004. This is its biggest annual increase since 1989 and its seventh consecutive annual record. The annual MLS average home price will increase by a further 5.0 per cent to $269,000 in 2006.

“Mortgage interest rates are expected to remain within one per cent of current levels in 2006, so many homebuyers will still be able to finance more expensive home purchases,” added Klump."

Good news eh! We think so and here's why. We look forward to seeing your feedback on this too! Our belief after working in many exciting resort destinations, not unlike the Okanagan is that in most instances a somewhat protected real estate economy forms in these environments.

Does that mean that they can't crash.. heavens no. There has been more than one occasion when you could have picked up a Condo at Whistler by taking over the payments! Will that happen again, the answer is surely...NO.

With authors like Harry Dent, a well respected futurist predecting an end to an unprecedented "housing bubble" (after writing a book 6 years ago on the unprecedented and long term boom!!... then again he recently forecast that by spring oil would be $25 per barrel!) the media is picking up on this frenzy and suggesting cautious plans for real estate investments and using a very wide brush to paint "all" sectors of the housing market.

So why are we so confident that the Okanagan valley real estate opportunity is so strong. Because short to medium term demand is very strong and largely unshakeable. Take a wealthy oil services company owner from Red Deer for example, who has made enough money to slow down and live his dream here in the Okanagan. What happens to this persons desire to buy here when interest rates go up a few points? Nothing, because he has already planned for the event.

The rapidly increasing housing values in the Okanagan are luring a higher net worth individual to the Okanagan who is less impacted by external influencers than urban blue collar markets! From an investment perspective, the Okanagan remains an outstanding and well marketed destination to which many families will continue to flock. Talk to hotel owners in Osoyoos and they will tell you of Albertan families who have NEVER missed their annual family vacation in the same hotel, often in the same room EVERY YEAR!!!

Can the unpredictable happen! Yes, we are not sure what it is, but interestingly enough, when the unpredictable does happen, there is no place better to be than the Okanagan. That is why we believe it will KEEP ON TRUCKIN!

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Welcome

Welcome to BCResortHomes.com BLOG space. We wanted to be able to post interesting articles on local BC real estate issues here for our clients, past present and future, as well as bringing in some content from our experience on overseas projects.

We welcome your comments, which in this technological world are designed to keep us honest and give you real time feedback on the local market place and the quality of our service.

We look forward to posting articles of interest here, both from our team and outside contributors and hope that will assist you in completing your own personal research with regards to purchasing a real estate asset in one of the most beautiful corners of the world, Canada's real vineyard region... The Okanagan